Biden campaign faces problem with perceptions of the economy that don't track with data

WASHINGTON (TND) — The way Americans feel about the economy is in direct contrast with the measured data that is showing continued growth and strong employment opportunities for workers that has been consistent despite higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve that are meant to cool activity.

A Harris-Guardian poll released this week found more than half of Americans believe the economy is in recession and shrinking, nearly 50% believe unemployment is at a 50-year high and that the S&P index is down for the year.

Those beliefs are in direct contrast with the data, which shows the economy is not in a recession and has continued to see GDP growth over the last several years, unemployment is below 4% and near a 50-year low and Wall Street indexes hit record highs as recently as this week.

The White House has tried several strategies to tout what has been a strong economy by historical standards under President Joe Biden’s watch, but that messaging is not sinking in with voters. This week’s poll was yet another example of voters’ frustrations with inflation sinking their overall attitudes toward the economy.

Biden and other high-ranking administration officials have traveled across the country touting economic growth and investments made by legislation the president has signed into law, but polling data has continually showed that message isn’t sinking in with voters.

“This is a really good lesson in perception is reality and the perception in the United States on Main Street is that the economy's not doing well and that inflation is out of control but that perception is going to impact people and how they view the president,” said David Cohen, a professor a political science professor and director of the University of Akron’s Applied Politics program. “It's a real challenge for the Biden White House and for the Biden campaign. They have not done a good job communicating from the very beginning.”

Consumer sentiment, which gauges their attitudes toward it, also reached a six-month low in the most recent reading of the University of Michigan’s monthly survey. The measure dropped from 77.2% in April to 67.4% in May, well below what economists were projecting in another example of sour attitudes about an economy that federal data indicates is running at a healthy pace.

“While consumers had been reserving judgment for the past few months, they now perceive negative developments on a number of dimensions. They expressed worries that inflation, unemployment and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead,” survey director Joanne Hsu wrote.

Michigan’s survey also found expectations for inflation are heading in the wrong direction in the short- and long-term consumer outlooks, which could weaken economic activity with consumers spending less.

Attitudes toward the economy are one of the main hurdles facing President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. The president has suffered from low approval ratings for his handling of the economy throughout most of his first term as frustrations over inflation have outweighed low unemployment and economic growth.

The Harris-Guardian survey found a majority of Americans also specifically blamed Biden for the state of the economy, with 58% saying it is worsening because of his mismanagement. His overall approval rating has also been low throughout most of his presidency, failing to eclipse 40% dating back months as voters have been unhappy on other issues like immigration and the state of American democracy.

The economy is generally the biggest indicator in how people will vote come Election Day and their No. 1 priority when deciding which candidate they will pull the lever for. Polling so far this year has indicated a significant advantage on that issue for former President Donald Trump, who is holding a slim lead in polls less than six months before Nov. 5.

“This White House and also his campaign now have struggled to have a coherent message that that the American public has been able to hear, and it's really hurt his approval ratings,” Cohen said. “It’s got to be frustrating for the president because I'm sure he's looking at these economic indicators going, ‘what's going on? We're in a good spot.’”

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